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PARIS — In the 20 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kiev’s allies have diverted more than $230 billion in military and other aid. There is zero chance that Kiev will receive anything close to this amount in the next 20 months. Make sense of the news quickly with ArrowRight, Opinions’ daily . And if Donald Trump returns to the White House, the sums will likely shrink even further. This grim mathematics, along with the U.S. political calendar, has prompted anxious Western leaders to begin devising strategies to protect Ukraine from Trump’s relentless onslaught of President Vladimir Putin. There is currently little serious talk in European capitals about Kiev’s “victory”, at least not in the near future. What is needed is a realistic plan for Ukraine’s survival. The problem is in the canyon between Europe’s growing alarm over a possible rejection by Trump and the action plan. Former German defense ministry chief of staff Nico Lange told me that “everyone is worried” about the specter of a new Trump administration. “But the result of this worry is doing nothing. “This is irresponsible behavior.” With Trump and President Biden essentially tied in a series of recent polls, European leaders have finally realized that a second term for Trump is possible. Earlier this year the question was asked regularly Could this really happen? I don’t hear that anymore when I travel around Europe. Instead, European leaders are determined not to be surprised again like they were in 2016. Last month, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went significantly out of her way to fly to Texas before attending the opening session of the UN General Assembly in New York. She met with Governor Greg Abbott in Austin; It was a rare tête-à-tête between the environmental stalwart of the European Green Party and a climate change-denying GOP ambassador. A German official told me that Berlin’s goal is to take into account how Republicans see the world and better assess what would happen if Trump takes back the White House. A consensus is also emerging in Europe about how to approach congressional Republicans. To prove that the US should continue its aid Ukraine, the goal is to talk less about Ukraine, more about China, and how not invite an attack on Taiwan. A senior European security official told me that the message GOP lawmakers was “If you want to remain credible against China, then you have do well in Ukraine.” But European support is moving even faster than the West’s plausible plan to keep Ukraine on life support; let alone maintaining offensive momentum on the battlefield. No one thinks European allies can bridge the gap that would be left in the absence of U.S. military aid, which accounts for nearly half of all military aid sent to Ukraine. But even the optimistic scenario of Washington continuing aid after the 2024 presidential election, albeit at a much lower level, could pose a serious threat to Ukraine. Putin was exaggerating when he recently said t
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